Michael, thanks for the deep insights. I'm curious on a couple levels:
One, it seems that regulatory framework clarification may open the door to a wider institutional adoption according to the likes of Michael Saylor and Kevin O'Leary?
Second, it appears we are seeing a shakeout (i.e. Luna) similar to the dot.com to dot.bomb bust in the tech-stock craze of the late 90's? What are your thoughts on this? What coins/platforms will make it and which won't? I know this requires some prognostication.
Thanks for the note, Brad. Regarding the first question, I do think that regulatory clarity will ultimately bring broad adoption, while wiping out the bad actors in the space. That said, with the Terra/Luna collapse and subsequent withdrawal freeze for over 1 million customers from the centralized crypto bank Celsius (this is not a DeFi application), I expect some overreach in the short term. This is a natural outcome with prices down 70-90% and retail getting hammered. Regulators will likely get a lot of things wrong in the short run and cause issues for the space. That said, I'm optimistic in the long run.
Regarding #2, I think the analogy holds very well. We see speculative mania today just like we saw in the late 90's. Back then, the speculation was directionally accurate, though investors overshot in many cases. Many, many businesses failed. We also got Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Facebook, etc. I expect to see the same in crypto. There are over 19,000 cryptocurrencies today. We probably only need 50-100 at present. That said, if we look out 10 years, I expect many, many businesses to be using tokens and NFTs to engage with consumers. I also believe that the financial system will ultimately be conducted on blockchain rails. As for the ones that will survive - I only write about stuff I believe is viable in the long run. I look for strong network effects, product/market fit, large treasuries, users, revenues, etc.
Michael, thanks for the deep insights. I'm curious on a couple levels:
One, it seems that regulatory framework clarification may open the door to a wider institutional adoption according to the likes of Michael Saylor and Kevin O'Leary?
Second, it appears we are seeing a shakeout (i.e. Luna) similar to the dot.com to dot.bomb bust in the tech-stock craze of the late 90's? What are your thoughts on this? What coins/platforms will make it and which won't? I know this requires some prognostication.
Thanks
Thanks for the note, Brad. Regarding the first question, I do think that regulatory clarity will ultimately bring broad adoption, while wiping out the bad actors in the space. That said, with the Terra/Luna collapse and subsequent withdrawal freeze for over 1 million customers from the centralized crypto bank Celsius (this is not a DeFi application), I expect some overreach in the short term. This is a natural outcome with prices down 70-90% and retail getting hammered. Regulators will likely get a lot of things wrong in the short run and cause issues for the space. That said, I'm optimistic in the long run.
Regarding #2, I think the analogy holds very well. We see speculative mania today just like we saw in the late 90's. Back then, the speculation was directionally accurate, though investors overshot in many cases. Many, many businesses failed. We also got Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Facebook, etc. I expect to see the same in crypto. There are over 19,000 cryptocurrencies today. We probably only need 50-100 at present. That said, if we look out 10 years, I expect many, many businesses to be using tokens and NFTs to engage with consumers. I also believe that the financial system will ultimately be conducted on blockchain rails. As for the ones that will survive - I only write about stuff I believe is viable in the long run. I look for strong network effects, product/market fit, large treasuries, users, revenues, etc.
Cheers,
Mike